After a crushing 28-31 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, the Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a postseason path that’s growing narrower by the week. Their playoff probability, once hovering near 60%, has now plunged to just 28% according to NFL.com’s updated model — a 13-point drop from just seven days ago. For a franchise that’s made the playoffs in 11 of the last 12 seasons, this isn’t just a setback — it’s a seismic shift in expectations.
The Turning Point: A Loss That Echoes
The loss to the Cowboys wasn’t just another defeat. It was the third in four weeks for the Chiefs, following back-to-back road losses to the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. What made it sting more? Kansas City entered the game with a 7-4 record and a realistic shot at the AFC West. They left at 7-5, tied for fourth in the division, and now sitting in ninth place in the entire AFC — one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills for the final wild card spot. The timing couldn’t be worse. With just five games left, every possession matters. And the Chiefs have already wasted too many.What the Numbers Say
The playoff math is brutal. According to NFL.com, eight AFC teams have a playoff probability of 19% or higher heading into Week 13: the Houston Texans (31%), Jacksonville Jaguars (29%), Los Angeles Chargers (28%), Kansas City Chiefs (28%), Pittsburgh Steelers (25%), Indianapolis Colts (21%), Baltimore Ravens (21%), and Buffalo Bills (19%). That’s not a race — it’s a free-for-all. And the Chiefs are no longer the favorites.Even more telling? Arrowhead Pride’s deeper analysis puts the Chiefs’ odds at just 44% — still higher than NFL.com’s model, but down from 57% last week. And here’s the kicker: their chance to win the AFC West? A mere 5%. That’s not a long shot. That’s a miracle. The Denver Broncos now sit one game ahead, and with the tiebreaker in their favor, Kansas City’s divisional destiny is out of their hands.
The Road Ahead: Must-Wins and Mental Toughness
Analyst Willson, in a viral YouTube breakdown titled “The Chiefs need to win out”: Willson on Kansas City’s playoff chances, laid it out plainly: “You got to win out. That’s just it.” And he’s right. The Chiefs’ remaining schedule is a gauntlet disguised as a home stretch:- Week 14: Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium — December 7, 8:20 pm ET
- Week 15: Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium — December 14, 1:00 pm ET
- Week 16: TBD — likely against a playoff-contending team
- Week 17: TBD — likely another tough opponent
Two of the three remaining home games are against teams currently ahead of them in the wild card race. That’s not coincidence. That’s scheduling karma. And the Texans? They’re surging. The Chargers? They’re hungry. Both are coming off wins. Both are playing for their lives.
“The good news,” Willson adds, “is you have two easier games down the road — the Raiders and Titans.” But here’s the twist: those games come after the two must-wins. Win those, and you get breathing room. Lose them, and you’re already eliminated by Christmas.
Why This Matters Beyond the Stats
This isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about identity. For over a decade, the Chiefs have been the AFC’s standard-bearer. Patrick Mahomes has carried them through injuries, suspensions, and offensive slumps. But this year? The defense is porous. The offensive line is inconsistent. The clock management has been erratic. And the leadership — once unshakable — now looks frayed at the edges.Meanwhile, the New England Patriots — last year’s 4-13 disaster — are now at 99% playoff probability. They’ve got the easiest schedule in the league, sure. But they’re also playing with a fire the Chiefs seem to have misplaced. The contrast is stark. One team is rebuilding with purpose. The other is clinging to past glory.
What’s Next? The Final Countdown
The next two weeks will define the 2025 season for Kansas City. If they beat the Texans and Chargers, they’ll still be alive — and the pressure will shift to teams like the Colts and Ravens, who face tougher remaining schedules. If they drop even one? The postseason door slams shut.And here’s what no one’s talking about: the mental toll. Mahomes, now 29, has never missed the playoffs. Andy Reid, 66, has never missed it with Mahomes. The weight of that legacy is crushing. Fans are already whispering about “the end of an era.” The players say they’re focused. But when you’re 28% to make the playoffs, focus doesn’t always equal results.
Historical Context: When the Chiefs Almost Missed It
The last time the Chiefs missed the playoffs under Andy Reid was 2017 — a 9-7 season that ended with a Week 17 loss to the Raiders. Even then, they were still in contention until the final week. This year? They’re not just behind — they’re out of position. In 2018, they went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. In 2022, they were 14-3. Now? They’re 7-5, and the rest of the AFC is catching up fast.The irony? The Colts’ loss to Kansas City in Week 12 — a 23-20 overtime thriller at Arrowhead Stadium — might come back to haunt them. That win gave the Chiefs hope. Now, that same win is a footnote. The Colts have eight wins, but their schedule is the second-toughest in the league. The Chiefs? Their schedule is middle-of-the-pack. Yet they’re the ones falling behind.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is it the Chiefs make the playoffs this year?
According to NFL.com, the Chiefs have a 28% chance to make the playoffs as of Week 13. Arrowhead Pride’s model is slightly more optimistic at 44%, but both agree the odds have dropped sharply from 57% just one week ago. To have any realistic shot, they must win all four remaining games — a tall order given their schedule includes three home games against playoff-contending teams.
What do the Chiefs need to do to win the AFC West?
Winning the AFC West is now nearly impossible. With the Denver Broncos one game ahead and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, Kansas City would need to win out while Denver loses all remaining games — including a matchup against the Chiefs’ toughest rivals. Analysts estimate their chance at the division title at just 5%, making the wild card their only realistic path.
Why are the Texans and Chargers games so critical?
Both teams are currently ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC wild card standings. Beating them at home would not only improve Kansas City’s record but also damage the playoff chances of direct competitors. The Texans are surging, and the Chargers are fighting for survival — meaning both games will be high-intensity, physical battles. Losing either likely ends the Chiefs’ season.
How does this compare to past Chiefs seasons?
This is the most precarious position the Chiefs have been in since 2017 — the last time they missed the playoffs under Andy Reid. Back then, they were 9-7 and lost their final game. This year, they’re 7-5 with tougher opponents ahead and no margin for error. The team’s identity as a perennial contender is now under serious threat, especially with Mahomes entering his prime years and the AFC growing deeper.
What role does Patrick Mahomes play in turning this around?
Mahomes remains the only player on the roster with the ability to single-handedly change the outcome of a game. But this season, he’s been under more pressure than ever — with a leaky offensive line and inconsistent defensive support. If he can lead two fourth-quarter comebacks in the next two weeks, especially against the Chargers and Texans, it could reignite belief. But he can’t do it alone anymore.
Could the Chiefs still win a Super Bowl if they make the playoffs?
It’s possible — but unlikely. The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game on the road since 2020. If they squeak in as the 7th or 8th seed, they’d likely face the top-seeded team — possibly the Patriots or Bills — in the first round. History shows that even great teams struggle to win multiple road games in January. The odds favor them being one-and-done, unless they find a way to turn their defense around.
